The International Energy Agency stated in its latest monthly oil market report on the 12th that, due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history. If shipping cannot resume promptly, the global crude oil supply gap will further widen.

The report pointed out that the volume of crude oil and petroleum products transported through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from a daily average of approximately 20 million barrels before the U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran to the current "extremely low levels". Due to limited alternative shipping capacity bypassing key routes and nearly saturated oil storage facilities, Gulf countries have reduced their total daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels. The report forecasts that global daily crude oil supply will drop sharply by around 8 million barrels in March.

The report stated that the U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran has significantly impacted the global refined oil market, with over 3 million barrels of daily refining capacity in the Middle East having ceased operations. Due to insufficient raw material supply, refining in other regions will also gradually face constraints.

The report revealed that since the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, international oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations. The price of London Brent crude oil futures once surged to nearly $120 per barrel. In this context, member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed on the 11th to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate global supply tensions. Data shows that global crude oil and refined oil inventories reached a total of 8.21 billion barrels in January, the highest level since February 2021.

The report emphasized that releasing oil reserves is only a temporary measure. The ultimate impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas market and the overall economy depends not only on the intensity of military actions and the extent of damage to energy facilities but, more critically, on the duration of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

From:ChemNet