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SunSirs: Cold Weather Leads to Sluggish Demand, China Asphalt Market Continues to Decline


The decline in the domestic asphalt market is obvious, mainly due to the demand side. The weather is gradually turning cold, and the construction of pavement is limited in some areas. The demand for asphalt is weakened. Specifically, on the macro level, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in the same period, causing the spread of negative sentiment throughout the industry chain. Although there are signs of recovery recently, it has little impact on the current asphalt market. In terms of supply, the main refineries of the production enterprises cut prices and offered batch discounts, driving the market price down. At the same time, there was a sign of inventory accumulation, and traders mostly went by volume at low prices. In terms of demand: the overall situation is relatively low. The cold air has led to a sharp slowdown in demand, and refinery prices have fallen again and again, but few purchases have been made.

  According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, since the middle and late October 2022, the asphalt market has gone down unilaterally and the market price has fallen sharply. The monitored price was 4,479 RMB/ton on October 20 and 3,569 RMB/ton on December 2, down 20.32% and still up 14% year on year.

  The change trend of Brent crude oil and asphalt prices is different before and after November 1. Before November 1, the change trend of the two is roughly the same; After November 1, there was a contrast between the two trends, with crude oil going up and asphalt going down. From November 14 to the middle and late November, the two trends are the same; Since the end of November, the price of crude oil and asphalt has changed in opposite directions. It can be seen that the main factors affecting the asphalt market are not crude oil and macro level, but supply and demand.

  The prices of the whole industry chain fell during the cycle, including crude oil (- .9%) and asphalt (-20.32%); The products with rising prices include activated carbon (0.93%) and coal tar (2.65%).

  At present, asphalt supply is relatively stable; From the demand side, the road demand may be limited due to weather conditions. SunSirs asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be dominated by downturn.