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SunSirs: Crude Oil Rose, the Retail Price of China Domestic Refined Oil Rose for the first Time


The price adjustment window of this round of domestic oil products was opened at 24:00 on January 3. In 2023, the retail price of this round of domestic oil products will rise. The change rate of this round of crude oil is starting to rise. During the cycle, the price of crude oil will rise, the change rate will increase, and the retail price of oil products will rise.

Entering this round of pricing cycle, the change rate of international crude oil is beginning in the positive direction. As of December 30, 2022, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures was 80.26 dollars/barrel, while Brent crude oil futures was 85.91 dollars/barrel. At the beginning of this round of price adjustment cycle, the Keystone oil pipeline of the United States and Canada leaked, causing about 14,000 barrels of crude oil to spill in the United States, becoming one of the largest crude oil spills in the United States in the past decade. The transportation capacity of this pipeline is more than 600,000 barrels/day, which can be called the "artery" of oil transportation in the United States. The temporary supply interruption supports the rise of oil prices. With the gradual liberalization of China's epidemic prevention measures, fuel demand is expected to rebound. Previously, Goldman Sachs also held an optimistic view on China in 2023 in its report. In addition to the positive demand from China, the United States announced the repurchase of strategic oil reserves, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, in response to the Group of Seven's oil export price ceiling to Russia, Russia said it might cut oil production, tightening expectations, making the oil market continue to heat up. On the whole, positive factors dominated. As of the 3rd day, the variety change rate of crude oil on the 10th working day was 3.58%. The zero selling price of refined oil in this round was increased by 250 RMB/ton for gasoline and 240 RMB/ton for diesel. The first increase in the retail price of refined oil in this round was realized as scheduled.

Gasoline: The international crude oil market has risen in this cycle, which is good for the oil market. But since December, with the early maintenance and shutdown of refineries, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has risen. Towards the end of the year, refineries have increased the use of crude oil quota, the overall operating rate of refineries has remained high, the domestic supply of refined oil products has increased, and after the implementation of policies such as the release of domestic epidemic control, residents' trial trips have gradually increased, Domestic gasoline demand gradually recovered, and gasoline prices rose in the later period.

In terms of diesel: the demand for diesel is not good. The commencement of outdoor industrial and mining, infrastructure and other industries in winter is further reduced, the activity of the logistics industry is reduced, and the downstream consumption of diesel will continue to shrink. Although the export volume of diesel has increased slightly, it has little impact on the diesel market. Affected by the rise of the crude oil market, the price of the diesel market remains weak and volatile.

In the future, China's demand is improving, boosting the oil market. However, the supply and demand fundamentals are hard to be optimistic in the future, the risk on the demand side is approaching step by step, the expectation of global economic recession remains unchanged, the oil market is still facing fundamental pressure in the future, and the trend of crude oil prices is still supportive in the short term. The operating rate of main refineries and local refineries rose slightly, and the supply of resources increased slightly. With the smooth passing of the peak of COVID-19 infection in China, and the domestic demand for gasoline rising near the Spring Festival, the gasoline market trend rose; The commencement of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is limited, the demand support of diesel market is still insufficient, and it is difficult for the short-term market to rise.