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SunSirs: China MTBE Market first Fell and then Rose


According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market first rose and then fell. From November 24th to December 1st, the price of MTBE increased from 6,537 RMB/ton to 6,575 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.57% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.13%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%.

In the first half of the week, the domestic MTBE market showed a weak trend, with prices mainly fluctuating and falling. After falling to a certain low point, it stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of the industry. At the same time, the international crude oil market continued to rise, and the industry has a certain optimistic attitude towards the future. The operating enthusiasm has increased. In terms of terminal gasoline, the industry has a high enthusiasm for stocking up, and multiple positive factors have boosted it. In the second half of the week, the MTBE market has shown a significant upward trend.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, the expectation of OPEC+ crude oil production reduction in the near future supports the recovery and fluctuation of crude oil market prices. On the one hand, OPEC+ has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization's concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries' demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. As of the close on November 30th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 80.86 RMB/barrel, a decrease of 2.02 US dollars or 2.4%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, there is a lack of holiday support in the short term, travel demand returns to normal, and air conditioning oil support is lost. The gasoline demand situation is average, and the gasoline market has not increased significantly. This also provides certain support for the MTBE market. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Waxing and Dongying Qifa are still in shutdown, while manufacturers such as Qingzhou Tian'an and Debao Road have seen varying degrees of reduced operating loads, resulting in a decrease in production. In the short term, Haite Weiye and Bengu New Materials have maintenance plans, so it is expected that their production may decrease in the short term. The supply side of MTBE is influenced by favorable factors.

As of the close on November 30th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by 0.56 USD/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 927.49-929.49 USD/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $12.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $930.49-930.99 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $25.56 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $982.56-982.91 per ton (276.78-276.88 cents per gallon).

According to future market forecasts, currently, raw material prices are high, cost pressures are high, and some manufacturers have plans to shut down in the future. There are expectations of reducing resource supply, but gasoline demand is still weak. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market will mainly experience a narrow consolidation.