India is accelerating efforts to complete the polycarbonate (PC) industrial chain, with local production capacities being planned and implemented successively. This may weaken the long-standing export competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises in the Indian local market as well as in third-party overseas markets.

Multiple enterprises launching projects intensively to build full-chain PC production capabilities

On August 4, Deepak Chem Tech, a subsidiary of the Indian chemical company Deepak Nitrite, obtained approval to invest 25 billion rupees (approximately 262 million USD) to build a 240,000 tons/year bisphenol A (BPA) plant and supporting facilities in Gujarat.

The company had previously confirmed the introduction of Trinseo technology to build India's first polycarbonate resin plant, simultaneously laying out phenol/acetone units. With the approval of this BPA project, the company will connect the complete integrated industrial chain of cumene-phenol/acetone-bisphenol A-polycarbonate-modified materials.

In addition to Deepak Nitrite, other leading Indian chemical enterprises are also increasing their related investments.

Reliance Industries is planning a 500,000 tons/year BPA project in Jamnagar, expected to commence production around 2030;

Haldia Petrochemicals plans to invest approximately 1 billion USD to build a polycarbonate production project.

India is replicating the development path of the Asian petrochemical industry, with the goal of gradually reducing its dependence on imports for polycarbonate products.

Rise of local production capacity poses risk of substitution for 44,000 tons of exports to India

In 2025, China exported approximately 44,000 tons of polycarbonate to India, accounting for 8% of total domestic PC exports, making India the fourth-largest export destination for Chinese PC.

Deepak Nitrite's PC plant is expected to start production between late 2027 and 2028. Once operational, local Indian capacity will gradually replace the current import demand of 44,000 tons. At present, the growth rate of domestic PC exports has already fallen from the previous annual growth of over 30% to single digits. Losing this core export market will directly impact the orders of relevant domestic production enterprises.

Integrated production compresses costs, gradually narrowing the cost gap between China and India

The cost advantage brought by economies of scale is the core competitiveness of China's exports of PC and BPA. Once India's integrated projects are completed, all processes from cumene, phenol/acetone, and BPA to PC will be achieved locally, saving on intermediate logistics freight, import tariffs, and channel premiums.

At the same time, India has obvious geopolitical location advantages. Compared to China, it is closer to the source of Middle Eastern propane and naphtha feedstocks, resulting in lower raw material maritime shipping costs. Deepak Nitrite's 240,000-ton BPA supporting PC project combined with Reliance Industries' planned 500,000-ton capacity will push India's comprehensive PC production cost closer to Chinese levels.

Local capacity in place, further raising the risk of tariffs on Chinese chemical products

In recent years, India has frequently implemented anti-dumping duties and additional tariffs on Chinese chemical products. Previously, even with extra tariffs, Chinese PC could still enter the Indian market, primarily because there was a lack of local substitute capacity, and the extra tax burden was borne by Indian downstream purchasers.

With the release of local Indian PC capacity, the policy motivation to protect domestic industries will further strengthen. Sufficient local supply will eliminate policy concerns, and India may further increase tariffs on Chinese PC. Once a 20% or higher anti-dumping tax is imposed, Chinese PC products will essentially lose access to the Indian market.

Capacity spillover will bring direct competition in third-party overseas markets

Reliance Industries' 500,000 tons/year BPA capacity already exceeds the supporting consumption of its own PC plant. The surplus capacity can be directly exported as BPA or further processed into polycarbonate for sale overseas.

Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and East Africa are traditional export markets for Chinese PC and BPA. Relying on raw material cost advantages and port logistics conditions, after India releases its scaled-up capacity, it will form direct competition with Chinese enterprises in the aforementioned regional markets.

Production commissioning timelines are clear; the window of opportunity is fleeting

The construction cycle for Deepak Nitrite's BPA and PC projects is 3-4 years, with production expected between late 2027 and 2028; Reliance Industries' 500,000-ton BPA project is expected to be completed around 2030.

Before 2028, the supply gap in the Indian market still needs to be filled by imports, so China's exports to India still have market space. After 2028, import substitution in the local Indian market will appear first, and subsequently, Chinese enterprises will face direct competition from Indian products in multiple overseas third-party markets.

From:ChemNet